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Experimental vs Theoretical Probability Intro

Our district has a subscription to MathBits where I find so many good ideas! I love this activity as an introduction to probability! I have 4 different stations - coin toss, spinner, die roll, and chips in a bag. To create smaller groups, I made 3 of the same 4 stations. I bought these huge magnetic spinners by mistake, but they work perfectly for this lesson. Right now, I just draw the spinner on the white board. Next year, I am going to get some posters made so that the sections are equally likely. For the chips, I found some old poker chips and used a sharpie to write A - E. The coin and die are self explanatory. :) 

 The students must find the experimental probability at each station with only 15-20 trials. The students start at one station and move around the room to each station. Once back to their original group, the students must use the Probability Simulator on the calculator to find the experimental probability with more trials for each station. Finally, the students must calculate the theoretical probability. 

 I have the students compare their experimental smaller trials to the calculator simulation. Then students must compare both to the theoretical probability. I love when students write about their thought process! All of the students saw the connection and described why the experimental was possibly different. 

 This is just one of the great resources that I have used from MathBits, so if you have the chance to purchase, I would definitely recommend! 

 ~RJ 

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